Model directory

58 numbered exits connect the forecast families, their station corrections, downscaled maps and verification. A new product gets a new exit; existing numbers stay fixed.

EXIT 01 ↗Global

ECMWF HRES

A single global atmospheric forecast. Station and regional verification answer different questions; inspect both before using a local temperature forecast.

ECMWFExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 02 ↗Ensemble

ECMWF ENS

An ensemble of plausible global forecasts. The mean smooths individual solutions; member spread describes disagreement and requires calibration before it becomes trading odds.

ECMWFExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 03 ↗Global

ECMWF AIFS

A machine-learned global forecast. Keep its native forecast separate from the station-corrected AIFS-MOS product.

ECMWFExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 04 ↗Ensemble

AIFS-ENS

The ensemble counterpart to the AI forecast. Its pattern verification and station-market coverage are separate records.

ECMWFExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 05 ↗Global

GFS

The U.S. global deterministic model. It supplies an independent forecast solution and is also the parent of GFS MOS.

NOAA / NCEPExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 06 ↗Ensemble

GEFS

The U.S. global ensemble. Compare member disagreement and forecast changes with verification on the same stations and dates.

NOAA / NCEPExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 07 ↗Global

ICON

The German global forecast. Native ICON, ICON-MOS station correction and ICON downscaling are distinct products.

DWDExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 08 ↗Global

GEM / GDPS

The Canadian global forecast. Native guidance and GEM-MOS have separate station error records.

Environment and Climate Change CanadaExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 09 ↗Global

UKMET Global

The UK global forecast. UKMET-MOS corrects its station forecasts; a model update time is not the time Weather Trader received its guidance.

UK Met OfficeExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 10 ↗Regional

HRRR

Rapid-refresh regional guidance for the evolving temperature curve, clouds and convection. Short-range and extended cycles provide different coverage.

NOAA / NCEPExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 11 ↗Regional

RRFS

Rapid-refresh regional guidance. Deterministic output, the ensemble control, perturbed members and MOS correction retain separate identities.

NOAA / NCEPExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 12 ↗Blend

NBM

The National Blend of Models is a useful baseline. Daily text products may use forecast windows different from a midnight-to-midnight station climate day.

NOAA / NWSExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 13 ↗Human guidance

NDFD

The National Digital Forecast Database contains the official NWS forecast. Human-edited guidance is compared with model guidance in the station record.

NOAA / NWSExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 14 ↗Statistical

LAMP

Frequently updated localized statistical guidance. Useful for short-range evolution; availability and remaining-day coverage limit daily comparisons.

NOAA / NWSExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 15 ↗Statistical

GFS MOS

NOAA statistical station guidance derived from GFS. This is distinct from the raw GFS forecast and Weather Trader MOS products.

NOAA / NWSExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 16 ↗Statistical

NAM MOS

NOAA statistical station guidance derived from NAM. Keep the issued forecast window and station coverage visible when comparing it.

NOAA / NWSExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 17 ↗Statistical

DWD MOSMIX

DWD station guidance combining statistical forecasts. Its supplied uncertainty and daily windows should not be assumed identical to other sources.

DWDExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 18 ↗Global

WeatherNext 2

Machine-learned global guidance with an existing verification page. Availability and permitted outputs follow the product-specific data terms.

GoogleExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 19 ↗Restricted input

WeatherNext 3

An underlying input used in derived guidance. This directory publishes no raw WeatherNext 3 forecast values. The corrected WN3-MOS-X product has its own exit.

GoogleExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 20 ↗MOS

HRRR-MOS

Station equations correct HRRR forecasts using past observed errors. Daily extrema target the local standard day; issued guidance is evaluated separately from the raw model.

Weather TraderIssue record: 2026-10-18T02:00:30ZEXIT 21 ↗MOS

RRFS-MOS

Station-corrected RRFS guidance. Visibility and evaluation do not imply that this product has been admitted to the live trading blend.

Weather TraderIssue record: 2026-10-17T21:20:45ZEXIT 22 ↗MOS

ICON-MOS

Station-corrected ICON guidance, including local bias and coastal behavior. The forecast retains DWD attribution and has its own verification history.

Weather Trader / DWDIssue record: 2026-10-17T22:00:29ZEXIT 23 ↗MOS

UKMET-MOS

Station-corrected UKMET guidance. Evaluate the issued values at a fixed decision time and keep source arrival delays in the comparison.

Weather Trader / UK Met OfficeIssue record: 2026-10-17T23:34:23ZEXIT 24 ↗MOS

AIFS-MOS

Daily station highs and lows derived from ECMWF AIFS Single, corrected using walk-forward station equations. This is the product sometimes called AIF-MOS.

Weather Trader / ECMWFIssue record: 2026-10-18T00:15:21ZEXIT 25 ↗MOS

GEM-MOS

Station-corrected GEM guidance. Its available training era and model version matter when interpreting regional or seasonal skill.

Weather Trader / ECCCIssue record: 2026-10-17T21:00:43ZEXIT 26 ↗MOS

WN3-MOS-X

Bias-corrected station highs and lows built from WeatherNext 3. Only the corrected product is displayed; raw underlying forecasts are not published.

Weather TraderIssue record: 2026-10-18T01:30:06ZEXIT 27 ↗Hourly MOS

HRRR-MOS hourly

An hourly-cycle station product using the forecast and observations available to the issue. Same-day highs and lows can contain observations already recorded.

Weather TraderIssue record: 2026-10-18T02:36:01ZEXIT 28 ↗Hourly MOS

RRFS-MOS hourly

Hourly RRFS temperature correction with observed-so-far daily extrema. Early synoptic runs can be reissued when extended guidance arrives; residual intervals are preliminary.

Weather TraderIssue record: 2026-10-18T02:28:31ZEXIT 29 ↗Downscaled

ECMWF-DS 2.5 km

ECMWF guidance corrected against URMA and placed on a 2.5 km grid, with a station layer. Its daily high/low products use NWS windows, not full market settlement days.

Weather Trader / ECMWFIssue record: 2026-10-18T00:41ZEXIT 30 ↗Downscaled

ICON-DS 2.5 km

ICON guidance corrected against URMA on a 2.5 km grid with a station layer. Native-window verification is distinct from full-day market verification.

Weather Trader / DWDIssue record: 2026-10-17T21:52ZEXIT 31 ↗Downscaled

ECMWF-DS 0.1°

A separate downscaled map product at 0.1°. Inspect its map record and native grid windows; it is not a substitute for the 2.5 km station product.

Weather Trader / ECMWFExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 32 ↗Downscaled

ECMWF-DS 0.25°

A separate ECMWF downscaled map product at 0.25°. Resolution, statistical correction and target window all affect comparisons.

Weather Trader / ECMWFExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 33 ↗Downscaled

ICON-DS map explorer

The ICON downscaled map feed. Its gridded products and history are available in the explorer; no full-day station-market score is inferred from map colors.

Weather Trader / DWDExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 34 ↗Downscaled ensemble

ECMWF-DS ENS

Downscaled ECMWF ensemble fields. The ensemble mean and spread are distinct from deterministic downscaling and require their own verification.

Weather Trader / ECMWFExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 35 ↗Ensemble member

RRFS-Control

The unperturbed control from the RRFS ensemble feed. Daily extrema require a complete set of 24 hourly samples.

NOAA / NCEPExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 36 ↗Ensemble member

RRFS-M01

Perturbed member m001. It is raw forecast guidance, with no member-specific MOS fitted.

NOAA / NCEPExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 37 ↗Ensemble member

RRFS-M02

Perturbed member m002. It is raw forecast guidance, with no member-specific MOS fitted.

NOAA / NCEPExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 38 ↗Ensemble member

RRFS-M03

Perturbed member m003. It is raw forecast guidance, with no member-specific MOS fitted.

NOAA / NCEPExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 39 ↗Ensemble member

RRFS-M04

Perturbed member m004. It is raw forecast guidance, with no member-specific MOS fitted.

NOAA / NCEPExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 40 ↗Ensemble member

RRFS-M05

Perturbed member m005. It is raw forecast guidance, with no member-specific MOS fitted.

NOAA / NCEPExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 41 ↗Ensemble

RRFS ensemble mean

The mean of the control and five perturbed members from one cycle. Daily values average the six member extrema. The range is disagreement, not calibrated odds.

NOAA / NCEPExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 42 ↗Regional

HRRR subhourly

Quarter-hour guidance used to investigate brief warming, cooling and transition timing that hourly samples can miss. It is not a separate independent model.

NOAA / NCEPExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 43 ↗Blend

Weather Trader superensemble

The combined forecast as issued. Its market performance depends on calibration, observation updates, executable prices and fees, as well as forecast accuracy.

Weather TraderExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 44 ↗Market MOS

Kalshi-MOS

Experimental calibration of Kalshi-implied daily highs and lows. Compare raw market probabilities, corrected temperatures, hourly revisions and held-out verification. This market-informed product is separate from the weather-only ensemble.

Weather Trader / KalshiIssue record: 2026-10-18T02:42:01ZEXIT 45 ↗Market MOS

Polymarket-MOS

Experimental calibration of Polymarket-implied daily highs and lows. Raw and corrected forecasts retain separate records; historical and forward scores are distinguished. Thin or incomplete books remain unavailable.

Weather Trader / PolymarketIssue record: 2026-10-18T02:42:01ZEXIT 46 ↗Market MOS

ForecastEx-MOS

Experimental calibration of ForecastEx daily temperature forecasts inferred from its trade ladder. Last-trade age and incomplete strike coverage limit availability. An indicative forecast is not an executable price.

Weather Trader / ForecastExIssue record: 2026-10-18T02:42:01ZEXIT 47 ↗Downscaled

GFS-DS 2.5 km

GFS guidance corrected against URMA on a 2.5 km grid with a station layer, the same method as ECMWF-DS and ICON-DS. Native-window verification is distinct from full-day market verification.

Weather Trader / NOAAIssue record: 2026-10-17T22:32ZEXIT 48 ↗Downscaled

GFS-DS map explorer

The GFS downscaled map feed on the 2.5 km URMA grid, three-hourly to 240 hours. Its gridded products and history are available in the explorer; no full-day station-market score is inferred from map colors.

Weather Trader / NOAAExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 49 ↗Downscaled

AIFS-DS 2.5 km

ECMWF AIFS Single guidance corrected against URMA on a 2.5 km grid with a station layer, the same method as ECMWF-DS. Daily highs and lows are rebuilt from its 6-hourly temperature. Native-window verification is distinct from full-day market verification.

Weather Trader / ECMWFIssue record: 2026-10-17T23:42ZEXIT 50 ↗Downscaled

AIFS-DS map explorer

The AIFS downscaled map feed on the 2.5 km URMA grid, six-hourly to 360 hours. Its gridded products and history are available in the explorer; no full-day station-market score is inferred from map colors.

Weather Trader / ECMWFExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 51 ↗MOS

ECMWF-MOS

Daily station highs and lows to day 9 from ECMWF IFS HRES, corrected with walk-forward station equations that also see the column above the station (925 to 500 hPa temperature, moisture and wind, the full-mix temperature). Keep its native forecast separate from this product.

Weather Trader / ECMWFIssue record: 2026-10-18T00:38:34ZEXIT 52 ↗MOS

GFS-MOS

Daily station highs and lows to day 14 from the NCEP GFS, corrected with walk-forward station equations that also see the column above the station, with the decimals the NWS GFS MOS bulletin does not carry. Keep its native forecast separate from this product.

Weather Trader / NOAAExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 53 ↗MOS

AIFS-ENS-MOS

Daily station highs and lows to day 14 from the mean of the ECMWF AIFS ENS (51 members), corrected with walk-forward station equations. The mean smooths out detail the single AIFS run keeps, which helps most at the longer leads. Keep the raw ensemble separate from this product.

Weather Trader / ECMWFIssue record: 2026-10-18T01:22:24ZEXIT 54 ↗Downscaled

AIFS-ENS-DS 2.5 km

The mean of the ECMWF AIFS ENS (51 members) corrected against URMA on a 2.5 km grid with a station layer, the same method as AIFS-DS. Six-hourly to 360 hours; daily highs and lows are rebuilt from its 6-hourly temperature. Native-window verification is distinct from full-day market verification.

Weather Trader / ECMWFIssue record: 2026-10-18T01:39ZEXIT 55 ↗Downscaled

GEM-DS 2.5 km

Canadian GDPS (GEM global) guidance corrected against URMA on a 2.5 km grid with a station layer, the same method as ECMWF-DS and GFS-DS. Three-hourly to 240 hours from the 00 and 12 UTC runs. Native-window verification is distinct from full-day market verification.

Weather Trader / ECCCIssue record: 2026-10-17T20:36ZEXIT 56 ↗Downscaled

GEM-DS map explorer

The GEM downscaled map feed on the 2.5 km URMA grid, three-hourly to 240 hours. Its gridded products and history are available in the explorer; no full-day station-market score is inferred from map colors.

Weather Trader / ECCCExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 57 ↗Downscaled

ECMWF+GEM-DS 2.5 km

The plain average of ECMWF-DS and GEM-DS for each 00 and 12 UTC run: two independent global models, each corrected against URMA on the 2.5 km grid, then averaged at the stations and on the grid. Three-hourly to 144 hours and six-hourly to 240 hours. In verification the average was more accurate than either product alone at every lead.

Weather Trader / ECMWF / ECCCIssue record: 2026-10-17T20:53ZEXIT 58 ↗Downscaled

ECMWF+GEM-DS map explorer

The averaged ECMWF-DS and GEM-DS map feed on the 2.5 km URMA grid, to 240 hours. Its gridded products and history are available in the explorer; no full-day station-market score is inferred from map colors.

Weather Trader / ECMWF / ECCCExplore guidance and its verification record

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