EXIT 39 · Ensemble member · NOAA / NCEP

RRFS-M04

Perturbed member m004. It is raw forecast guidance, with no member-specific MOS fitted.

Open guidance ↗Market recap ↗Station model analysis ↗

What to inspect

Follow successive runs for the same target date. Compare error, bias and interval coverage on shared stations and dates. A sharper forecast is useful only when its uncertainty remains reliable.

Full 24-hour member coverage required

Updates and availability

00 / 06 / 12 / 18 UTC cycles; delivery follows source arrival

No issue timestamp is exposed by this directory for this product. The linked guidance page carries its own coverage and run information.

Station and neighborhood context

Use the station page to compare diurnal evolution, nearby observations and weather regimes. The linked page contains all available sources; availability varies by station.

How to read the record

Raw models, corrected station products and downscaled grids forecast different things. Market recap shows its decision cutoff, settlement basis and coverage. Missing forecasts are unavailable, never zero. Inclusion in this directory or recap does not imply inclusion in a trading blend.

Existing model verification and cycle archive ↗
United StatesEXIT 11 ↗Regional

RRFS

Rapid-refresh regional guidance. Deterministic output, the ensemble control, perturbed members and MOS correction retain separate identities.

NOAA / NCEPExplore guidance and its verification record
United StatesEXIT 21 ↗MOS

RRFS-MOS

Station-corrected RRFS guidance. Visibility and evaluation do not imply that this product has been admitted to the live trading blend.

Weather TraderIssue record: 2026-10-17T21:20:45Z
United StatesEXIT 28 ↗Hourly MOS

RRFS-MOS hourly

Hourly RRFS temperature correction with observed-so-far daily extrema. Early synoptic runs can be reissued when extended guidance arrives; residual intervals are preliminary.

Weather TraderIssue record: 2026-10-18T03:18:22Z
United StatesEXIT 35 ↗Ensemble member

RRFS-Control

The unperturbed control from the RRFS ensemble feed. Daily extrema require a complete set of 24 hourly samples.

NOAA / NCEPExplore guidance and its verification record
United StatesEXIT 36 ↗Ensemble member

RRFS-M01

Perturbed member m001. It is raw forecast guidance, with no member-specific MOS fitted.

NOAA / NCEPExplore guidance and its verification record
United StatesEXIT 37 ↗Ensemble member

RRFS-M02

Perturbed member m002. It is raw forecast guidance, with no member-specific MOS fitted.

NOAA / NCEPExplore guidance and its verification record
United StatesEXIT 38 ↗Ensemble member

RRFS-M03

Perturbed member m003. It is raw forecast guidance, with no member-specific MOS fitted.

NOAA / NCEPExplore guidance and its verification record
United StatesEXIT 40 ↗Ensemble member

RRFS-M05

Perturbed member m005. It is raw forecast guidance, with no member-specific MOS fitted.

NOAA / NCEPExplore guidance and its verification record
United StatesEXIT 41 ↗Ensemble

RRFS ensemble mean

The mean of the control and five perturbed members from one cycle. Daily values average the six member extrema. The range is disagreement, not calibrated odds.

NOAA / NCEPExplore guidance and its verification record