EXIT 47 · Downscaled · Weather Trader / NOAA

GFS-DS 2.5 km

GFS guidance corrected against URMA on a 2.5 km grid with a station layer, the same method as ECMWF-DS and ICON-DS. Native-window verification is distinct from full-day market verification.

Open guidance ↗Market recap ↗Station model analysis ↗

What to inspect

Follow successive runs for the same target date. Compare error, bias and interval coverage on shared stations and dates. A sharper forecast is useful only when its uncertainty remains reliable.

Separate native-window guidance; no compatible full-day market score

Updates and availability

See issued guidance for available cycles; collection and upstream release times differ

Latest cycle on file: 2026101718
Issued UTC: 2026-10-17T22:32Z
Issue age: 4.8 hours

Age describes the retained issue, not a guarantee that the upstream feed is current.

Station and neighborhood context

Use the station page to compare diurnal evolution, nearby observations and weather regimes. The linked page contains all available sources; availability varies by station.

How to read the record

Raw models, corrected station products and downscaled grids forecast different things. Market recap shows its decision cutoff, settlement basis and coverage. Missing forecasts are unavailable, never zero. Inclusion in this directory or recap does not imply inclusion in a trading blend.

Existing model verification and cycle archive ↗

EXIT 05 ↗Global

GFS

The U.S. global deterministic model. It supplies an independent forecast solution and is also the parent of GFS MOS.

NOAA / NCEPExplore guidance and its verification record

EXIT 06 ↗Ensemble

GEFS

The U.S. global ensemble. Compare member disagreement and forecast changes with verification on the same stations and dates.

NOAA / NCEPExplore guidance and its verification record

EXIT 15 ↗Statistical

GFS MOS

NOAA statistical station guidance derived from GFS. This is distinct from the raw GFS forecast and Weather Trader MOS products.

NOAA / NWSExplore guidance and its verification record

EXIT 48 ↗Downscaled

GFS-DS map explorer

The GFS downscaled map feed on the 2.5 km URMA grid, three-hourly to 240 hours. Its gridded products and history are available in the explorer; no full-day station-market score is inferred from map colors.

Weather Trader / NOAAExplore guidance and its verification record

EXIT 52 ↗MOS

GFS-MOS

Daily station highs and lows to day 14 from the NCEP GFS, corrected with walk-forward station equations that also see the column above the station, with the decimals the NWS GFS MOS bulletin does not carry. Keep its native forecast separate from this product.