EXIT 53 · MOS · Weather Trader / ECMWF

AIFS-ENS-MOS

Daily station highs and lows to day 14 from the mean of the ECMWF AIFS ENS (51 members), corrected with walk-forward station equations. The mean smooths out detail the single AIFS run keeps, which helps most at the longer leads. Keep the raw ensemble separate from this product.

Open guidance ↗Market recap ↗Station model analysis ↗

What to inspect

Follow successive runs for the same target date. Compare error, bias and interval coverage on shared stations and dates. A sharper forecast is useful only when its uncertainty remains reliable.

Issued local-standard-day forecasts, where archived before the cutoff

Updates and availability

00 / 06 / 12 / 18 UTC cycles; delivery follows source arrival

Latest cycle on file: 2026101718
Issued UTC: 2026-10-18T01:22:24Z
Issue age: 1.9 hours

Age describes the retained issue, not a guarantee that the upstream feed is current.

Station and neighborhood context

Use the station page to compare diurnal evolution, nearby observations and weather regimes. The linked page contains all available sources; availability varies by station.

How to read the record

Raw models, corrected station products and downscaled grids forecast different things. Market recap shows its decision cutoff, settlement basis and coverage. Missing forecasts are unavailable, never zero. Inclusion in this directory or recap does not imply inclusion in a trading blend.

Existing model verification and cycle archive ↗

EXIT 04 ↗Ensemble

AIFS-ENS

The ensemble counterpart to the AI forecast. Its pattern verification and station-market coverage are separate records.

ECMWFExplore guidance and its verification record

EXIT 54 ↗Downscaled

AIFS-ENS-DS 2.5 km

The mean of the ECMWF AIFS ENS (51 members) corrected against URMA on a 2.5 km grid with a station layer, the same method as AIFS-DS. Six-hourly to 360 hours; daily highs and lows are rebuilt from its 6-hourly temperature. Native-window verification is distinct from full-day market verification.