EXIT 45 · Market MOS · Weather Trader / Polymarket
Polymarket-MOS
Experimental calibration of Polymarket-implied daily highs and lows. Raw and corrected forecasts retain separate records; historical and forward scores are distinguished. Thin or incomplete books remain unavailable.
What to inspect
Follow successive runs for the same target date. Compare error, bias and interval coverage on shared stations and dates. A sharper forecast is useful only when its uncertainty remains reliable.
Dedicated raw-versus-calibrated scorecard; historical reconstruction and forward record are separate. Not admitted to the weather-only ensemble.
Updates and availability
Ten-minute market archive; first eligible hourly calibrated issue; experimental
- Latest cycle on file
- market-mos-v1
- Issued UTC
- 2026-10-18T03:12:02Z
- Issue age
- 0.1 hours
Age describes the retained issue, not a guarantee that the upstream feed is current.
Station and neighborhood context
Use the station page to compare diurnal evolution, nearby observations and weather regimes. The linked page contains all available sources; availability varies by station.
How to read the record
Raw models, corrected station products and downscaled grids forecast different things. Market recap shows its decision cutoff, settlement basis and coverage. Missing forecasts are unavailable, never zero. Inclusion in this directory or recap does not imply inclusion in a trading blend.
Existing model verification and cycle archive ↗