EXIT 44 · Market MOS · Weather Trader / Kalshi
Kalshi-MOS
Experimental calibration of Kalshi-implied daily highs and lows. Compare raw market probabilities, corrected temperatures, hourly revisions and held-out verification. This market-informed product is separate from the weather-only ensemble.
What to inspect
Follow successive runs for the same target date. Compare error, bias and interval coverage on shared stations and dates. A sharper forecast is useful only when its uncertainty remains reliable.
Dedicated raw-versus-calibrated scorecard; historical reconstruction and forward record are separate. Not admitted to the weather-only ensemble.
Updates and availability
Ten-minute market archive; first eligible hourly calibrated issue; experimental
- Latest cycle on file
- market-mos-v1
- Issued UTC
- 2026-10-18T03:12:02Z
- Issue age
- 0.1 hours
Age describes the retained issue, not a guarantee that the upstream feed is current.
Station and neighborhood context
Use the station page to compare diurnal evolution, nearby observations and weather regimes. The linked page contains all available sources; availability varies by station.
How to read the record
Raw models, corrected station products and downscaled grids forecast different things. Market recap shows its decision cutoff, settlement basis and coverage. Missing forecasts are unavailable, never zero. Inclusion in this directory or recap does not imply inclusion in a trading blend.
Existing model verification and cycle archive ↗