EXIT 51 · MOS · Weather Trader / ECMWF
ECMWF-MOS
Daily station highs and lows to day 9 from ECMWF IFS HRES, corrected with walk-forward station equations that also see the column above the station (925 to 500 hPa temperature, moisture and wind, the full-mix temperature). Keep its native forecast separate from this product.
What to inspect
Follow successive runs for the same target date. Compare error, bias and interval coverage on shared stations and dates. A sharper forecast is useful only when its uncertainty remains reliable.
Issued local-standard-day forecasts, where archived before the cutoff
Updates and availability
00 / 06 / 12 / 18 UTC cycles; delivery follows source arrival
- Latest cycle on file
- 2026101718
- Issued UTC
- 2026-10-18T00:38:34Z
- Issue age
- 2.7 hours
Age describes the retained issue, not a guarantee that the upstream feed is current.
Station and neighborhood context
Use the station page to compare diurnal evolution, nearby observations and weather regimes. The linked page contains all available sources; availability varies by station.
How to read the record
Raw models, corrected station products and downscaled grids forecast different things. Market recap shows its decision cutoff, settlement basis and coverage. Missing forecasts are unavailable, never zero. Inclusion in this directory or recap does not imply inclusion in a trading blend.
Existing model verification and cycle archive ↗Related exits
EXIT 01 ↗GlobalECMWF HRES
A single global atmospheric forecast. Station and regional verification answer different questions; inspect both before using a local temperature forecast.
ECMWFExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 02 ↗EnsembleECMWF ENS
An ensemble of plausible global forecasts. The mean smooths individual solutions; member spread describes disagreement and requires calibration before it becomes trading odds.
ECMWFExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 29 ↗DownscaledECMWF-DS 2.5 km
ECMWF guidance corrected against URMA and placed on a 2.5 km grid, with a station layer. Its daily high/low products use NWS windows, not full market settlement days.
Weather Trader / ECMWFIssue record: 2026-10-18T00:41ZEXIT 31 ↗DownscaledECMWF-DS 0.1°
A separate downscaled map product at 0.1°. Inspect its map record and native grid windows; it is not a substitute for the 2.5 km station product.
Weather Trader / ECMWFExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 32 ↗DownscaledECMWF-DS 0.25°
A separate ECMWF downscaled map product at 0.25°. Resolution, statistical correction and target window all affect comparisons.
Weather Trader / ECMWFExplore guidance and its verification recordEXIT 57 ↗DownscaledECMWF+GEM-DS 2.5 km
The plain average of ECMWF-DS and GEM-DS for each 00 and 12 UTC run: two independent global models, each corrected against URMA on the 2.5 km grid, then averaged at the stations and on the grid. Three-hourly to 144 hours and six-hourly to 240 hours. In verification the average was more accurate than either product alone at every lead.
Weather Trader / ECMWF / ECCCIssue record: 2026-10-17T20:53ZEXIT 58 ↗DownscaledECMWF+GEM-DS map explorer
The averaged ECMWF-DS and GEM-DS map feed on the 2.5 km URMA grid, to 240 hours. Its gridded products and history are available in the explorer; no full-day station-market score is inferred from map colors.
Weather Trader / ECMWF / ECCCExplore guidance and its verification record