A Fair-Value & Verification Desk for the Atmosphere
Every operational model — GFS, the European ensemble, AIFS, ICON, the NWS blend — folds into one calibrated, bias-corrected fair value: tomorrow's high, the odds it clears a line, the bust risk before the models break. Then every call is scored against what actually happened. Fair value you can check — priced, verified, settled.
Just want your weather? Get your local forecast → — today, the week, and how far out to trust it.
— Live · one decision, priced & scored —
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— The desk, in three moves —
Price. One calibrated probability per outcome, blended across every model with a diversity-aware weight — correlated models don't get counted twice.
Prove. Each model scored against the settlement truth on a common board: day-5 skill, who to trust in the flow, reliability — no cherry-picking.
Persist. Every issued forecast frozen at issue time and settled against the record — a tamper-evident track you can audit, not a claim you have to trust.
Current conditions from your nearest station, the seven-day high and low, when the rain comes, and any active alerts — with the one thing only this desk adds: how far out it's actually trustworthy.
Get your forecast →Where this week's forecast heat and cold land against a century of records at your nearest long-term station: the record for the date, how long since it was this hot or cold, the rank.
Open the almanac →The seven-day chance and amount at your exact point from the National Weather Service grid, plus the hour-by-hour timing for today and tomorrow.
See the rain outlook →The calibrated per-station outlook: every model's daily high side by side, the bias-corrected consensus and its odds of clearing a line, and the Fork — ensemble divergence as a bust-risk tell.
See the fair value →Every model scored against one common truth: day-5 skill run over run, who to trust in each flow, the reliability diagram, and the season accuracy record — provable by anyone.
Read the record →The calibration, the common-truth board that trains the blend, the diversity-aware weighting, and the tamper-evident provenance — every number on the site traced back to how it was made.
Open the method →