A Fair-Value & Verification Desk for the Atmosphere
Every operational model — GFS, the European ensemble, AIFS, ICON, the NWS blend — folds into one calibrated, bias-corrected fair value: tomorrow's high, the odds it clears a line, the bust risk before the models break. Then every call is scored against what actually happened. Fair value you can check — priced, verified, settled.
Just want your weather? Get your local forecast → — today, the week, and how far out to trust it.
— Live · one decision, priced & scored —
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— The desk, in three moves —
Price. One calibrated probability per outcome, blended across every model with a diversity-aware weight — correlated models don't get counted twice.
Prove. Each model scored against the settlement truth on a common board: day-5 skill, who to trust in the flow, reliability — no cherry-picking.
Persist. Every issued forecast frozen at issue time and settled against the record — a tamper-evident track you can audit, not a claim you have to trust.
Current conditions from your nearest station, the seven-day high and low, when the rain comes, and any active alerts — with the one thing only this desk adds: how far out it's actually trustworthy.
Get your forecast →Where this week's forecast heat and cold land against a century of records at your nearest long-term station: the record for the date, how long since it was this hot or cold, the rank.
Open the almanac →The seven-day chance and amount at your exact point from the National Weather Service grid, plus the hour-by-hour timing for today and tomorrow.
See the rain outlook →The calibrated per-station outlook: every model's daily high side by side, the bias-corrected consensus and its odds of clearing a line, and the Fork — ensemble divergence as a bust-risk tell.
See the fair value →Every model scored against one common truth: day-5 skill run over run, who to trust in each flow, the reliability diagram, and the season accuracy record — provable by anyone.
Read the record →The calibration, the common-truth board that trains the blend, the diversity-aware weighting, and the tamper-evident provenance — every number on the site traced back to how it was made.
Open the method →Trained on our own frozen record: the probability the consensus moves ≥3°F by the next model cycle, per station and day — a quantified answer to the call every forecaster makes by gut.
Get the verdict →The AI models train toward ECMWF, so their errors travel together. Neff measures the effective number of independent opinions in the eight-model fleet — live, trended, by region.
Read the index →The ensemble forked at issue; the atmosphere has been voting since. The posterior on each branch given the verifying analysis — which storyline the evidence now supports, and what moved it.
See the verdict →Our issue-time fair value against the frozen ForecastEx price on every settled contract — proper scores, bootstrap confidence intervals, the full record downloadable. Honest either way.
Audit the board →Each distinct ensemble storyline gets a name the run it emerges and keeps it while it lives — probability mass flowing between scenarios, run over run, on one ticker board.
Watch the ticker →Paper positions against the House at frozen prices, settled by the same truth as the models — and a meteorologist-grade scorecard of you: Brier, reliability, you vs the ECMWF.
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