What the models show going forward — agreement, uncertainty, regime
The forward-looking companion to Verification. For a chosen run it reads what the models are projecting into the future: the regime they're aiming at, where they agree and where the ensemble is diverging (bust risk you can see before the outcome), the distinct scenarios in play, and which model to lean on for this flow. The run-over-run strip shows what has been changing cycle to cycle.
New to these panels? The Method page explains every one — with live, worked examples.
The predicted Day-5 regime across recent cycles. A flip means the models revised the pattern; a steady hold means the outlook has locked in — a confidence signal in itself.
Ensemble divergence (the Fork), known now with no outcome needed. Redder = the members disagree more = the forecast is more likely to bust. Reading down a column shows where confidence runs out. The metric's companion site: forecastfork.com.
The shadow House weights for this run's predicted regime — tilted toward the model that historically owns this pattern, shrunk toward the proven global weights. Shadow only.