Casebook
The Casebook
One verified run a week, taken apart in public
Every week the most instructive fully-verified model run becomes a written case study —
what the models said at issue, where the ensemble forked, what the shadow House did, what actually
verified, who won, and what a reader should take away. Every sentence is composed from numbers in the
frozen verification record; nothing is written after the fact that couldn't have been read at the time.
How a study is chosen. Each Monday the pipeline scores every fully-verified init of the trailing
week for
instructiveness: how far its Day-5 skill sat from the season mean (busts and nails both
teach), how widely the models disagreed (a winner and a loser to name), and whether the issue-time
Fork call — the calibrated bust probability — turned out right. The standout becomes that week's study.
Everything is traceable: each figure comes from the same frozen artifacts served on the
Verification board and each study links to the full
per-run post-mortem, so any claim can be checked against the record it cites.