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The Trading Desk

Model-vs-House Pricing · Live at Any Point

Live market

Beat the House

Paper credits — no real money

Take YES or NO against the House's frozen line on any open contract. Same settlement truth as the models — then see your own Brier, calibration and head-to-head record on the human leaderboard.

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ELO ratings

ModelELOBrierBSSWins

Season P&L

ModelP&LBrierW/N

Reliability — calibration

On the diagonal = perfectly calibrated. Curve below the line = over-confident; above = under-confident.