The House's Tape · Provable, Settled, Scored
How the market maker's odds have actually verified. Every settled contract, scored by Brier and skill — and a ledger anyone can prove was never edited after the fact.
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Points on the 45° line are perfectly calibrated: when the House says “70%”, it has happened ~70% of the time. Above the line = under-confident; below = over-confident.
| Param | n | Brier | Acc | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Brier — lower is better (0 = perfect, 0.25 = a coin flip). Skill is vs a naive base-rate forecast; > 0 means we add value. Accuracy is how often the likelier side won.
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HI = surprise-weighted days of lead · Market = mean Usable Lead (odds committed & held past climatology) · Value = mean days the forecast value sat within the error band · Commit/Recant = took a stand / later broke. Climatology sits at 0.
Each line is a model's probability for one settled outcome, run by run, from long lead (left) to valid time (right — “the exit”). Gold dash = climatology, grey dash = the House line, shaded band = the commit zone; a mile-marker flags each model's Usable Lead.