Network Heat & Cold Perils · Honest Ensemble Probabilities
Every registry station scanned against heat/cold thresholds over the next days, from a pooled multi-model ensemble — the probabilities are recalibrated for the ensemble's known ~2× overconfidence, so they're tradeable. Early + high-P = the event is locked in with lead to hedge; high spread = still unsettled.
| Station | Peril | Valid day | Lead | Honest P | Forecast (°F / °C) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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