Hedge

Peril Watch

Network Heat & Cold Perils · Honest Ensemble Probabilities

Every registry station scanned against heat/cold thresholds over the next days, from a pooled multi-model ensemble — the probabilities are recalibrated for the ensemble's known ~2× overconfidence, so they're tradeable. Early + high-P = the event is locked in with lead to hedge; high spread = still unsettled.

StationPerilValid day LeadHonest PForecast (°F / °C)Spread
Loading…